Oklahoma City Today

Remember that famous 1980 bet between economist Julian Simon and biologist Paul Ehrlich over whether raw materials would get more expensive? Simon won, but here's the twist—if they'd picked almost any other decade, Ehrlich might have taken home the prize. A sweeping new analysis of 124 commodities over more than a century reveals a fascinating pattern that helps explain why your grocery bill and gas tank don't follow the same rules. Researcher Brian Potter dove deep into everything from wheat prices dating back to the 1800s to modern-day lithium costs, uncovering trends that challenge our assumptions about scarcity and abundance. The results? Agricultural products are the clear winners for consumers—24 out of 25 crops studied are cheaper today than when record-keeping began, with more than half seeing price drops exceeding 50%. Your chicken dinner costs less now than it did in 1980. But fossil fuels tell a different story, with oil, gas, and coal showing a "slight tendency" to get more expensive over time, punctuated by dramatic price spikes during crises. Perhaps most intriguingly, this decades-long trend toward cheaper commodities has been reversing since 2000. Beef, pork, copper, and construction materials that once consistently dropped in price are now climbing. The shift suggests we may be entering a new era where the old rules about commodity prices no longer apply.